Aug
6
Very few punters make money when gambling on horses which is the most popular gambling pastime in the World. A relatively recent change to betting is the option to Lay the horse to lose which is available via betting exchanges like Betfair.
When laying a horse on the exchanges then if you are not using any form criteria and know nothing other than the price of the horse it’s probably best to avoid lower priced horses in general as they win their races at a closer percentage rate to their expected rate of winning than bigger priced horses.
The next paragraph explins how the shorter priced animals have a more efficient winning rate than the bigger priced horses.
Evens shots are expected to win 50% of the time but they actually win 48.2% of the time (96% efficient). 5-1 shots should win 16.7% of the time but they win 14.8% of the time (89%) efficient. The longer the price, the less efficient that price range is. This is due to the bookies over-round having more of an effect on longer priced horses, which is in effect due to a favourite / longshot bias.
Most people fail at laying horses because they simply lay all favourites. It’s easy to assume that your bank will not go down quickly because you are laying lower priced horses but it’s a proven fact that this method will simply not succeed and you will lose your money.
There is one exception to this rule: odds-on favourites. As will be shown in another article you can actually profit from laying odds-on favourites. And in one particular type of race, you can make spectacular profits from laying them.
Finding False Favourites.
The best way to profit from laying favourites is to find false or overbet favourites.
There will always be certain races where the horses are hyped up by the media and this can be down to the trainer of the horse of even the jockey booked to ride. These very often are false favourites and can be layed to a profit.
Every week there are many ‘overbet’ favourites. These are going to be the horses with the best form, jockey, trainer, sire, owner etc. They will be the ones which will attract the most money because they look like ‘a winner’. The masses of punters out there do not understand value and are only looking for winners. With media pundits only interested in ‘winners’ too this creates ‘overbet’ favourites.
What is needed is an approach to finding these false favourites. The only way you can do that is to know something else about the horse which the masses do not.
If you find a race where the favourite seems to have a weakness or two then finding one or two other horses in the race who have ability and a fair chance can strengthen the opinion that the horse is worth laying.
On a typical Saturday many thousands of newspaper punters are going to back horses because of the last 3 form figures. A similar figure will bet on what their favourite media pundit tells them to bet (and media pundits are mostly form based). Many other punters will be relying on tipsters and tipsters are mostly form based too.
The job in hand then is to find the races where the favourite has been over hyped for any reason and likely to be ‘overbet’ The you have to find the reasons why this horse might not win this race and then find other horses that CAN win the race and you probably have a horse that you can lay to lose on Betfair.
Article Tags: Hobby & Sport
Category: Hobby & Sport
Author/submiter:
Do more:
Print This Post
Email This Post
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.